CVs are likely to have declined a little due to early buying last quarter

May’23 2W volumes are likely to have grown in strong double digits YoY, boosted by the marriage season, replacement demand and low base. Similarly, PV volumes are likely to have grown in double digits from launches and better supplies. CVs are likely to have declined a little due to early buying last quarter. Tractor volumes are likely to have fallen slightly as high base catches up.

Robust, ~20 per cent, 2W volume growth continues YoY. BJAUT 87 per cent, TVSL 30 per cent, EIM-RE 29 per cent and HMCL 9 per cent. Growth in BJAUT and TVSL is high due to the low base (supply constraints last year). HMCL volumes are up 32 per cent MoM (Month on Month) due to the large number of marriage dates (14 days).

Healthy PV volume growth (~15 per cent YoY). MM 30 per cent, MSIL 15 per cent, TTMT 4 per cent. MM’s growth has been slightly impacted by chip shortages for airbags. MoM blended vehicle discounts have increased for select models.

CV volume growth (down ~5per cent YoY). EIM-VECV 23 per cent and AL 4 per cent, while declining 1 per cent for MM and 18 per cent for TTMT. TTMT volumes are muted due to loss of market share and slow ramp-up of OBD2 model supplies. The industry growth is expected to improve in the coming quarters as the impact of early buying fades.

Tractor volumes are likely to see a small fall (down ~4 per cent YoY): MM down 6 per cent, ESC down 1 per cent.